Big Tech just committed $725 billion to AI infrastructure in 2026. Meta raised its capex to $145B, and when asked about ROI, Zuckerberg said "that's a very technical question." Adjust the assumptions and see when this bet pays off.
Click to include/exclude from the calculator below.
When does cumulative AI revenue cover cumulative AI spending?
Combined Breakeven
13 years
At 30% annual AI revenue growth, cumulative returns cover cumulative spending by 2039.
Per-Company Breakdown
Alphabet
3.8x ratio
11y
by 2037
Amazon
5.0x ratio
13y
by 2039
Microsoft
5.4x ratio
13y
by 2039
Meta
8.1x ratio
16y
by 2042
$725 billion is not a bet on next quarter. It's a bet on the next decade. At realistic growth rates, most of these companies won't see cumulative returns on AI spending for 8-15 years.
Google is closest to making the math work. Cloud AI revenue is already growing 63% YoY, and their 3.8x ratio is the most favorable. Meta has the steepest climb: spending 8x what AI generates, with no cloud business to amortize the infrastructure.
The question isn't whether AI will generate revenue. It's whether these companies can generate enough revenue, fast enough, to justify the largest infrastructure bet in corporate history.
Data from Q1 2026 earnings reports (April 29-30, 2026). Capex figures are company-provided 2026 guidance. AI revenue figures are estimates based on reported cloud/AI segment data and analyst consensus. Separating "AI revenue" from general cloud revenue is inherently imprecise. Stock changes reflect post-earnings trading. This tool is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.